After last year's hideously disappointing race and the last few boring,
predictable rounds, it's been kind of tough to get excited about Laguna
this year, especially with the AMA being out of action for over a month
and the SB champion****p already feeling like it's decided. But I'm
coming around now, and so it's time for a few calls before hitting the
road.
1st: Rossi. Not the betting man's call, but I'll go out on the limb here
and take Vale in a race he'd dearly love to have, to get his first win
here and to take an expanded lead and some momentum into the summer
break. And after his tire woes the last two years, this is where the
Bridgestone switch should really pay off.
2nd: Stoner. He's still my guy with money on the line, but I can't quite
concede yet another runaway win thanks to the miracle of modern computer
programming. And he's got to lose somewhere, right? Right?
3rd: Vermeulen. A Bridgestone sweep again, and this is his best track by
far, after sweeping in WSB in his first try, pole, an early lead and a
podium ruined by mechanical problems in his second, and runner-up in his
third. Not the first dry MotoGP win for Suzuki he really wants, but the
box on a dry track is nothing to sneeze at.
4th: Hayden. Definitely not what he wants, but it would equal his best
finish of the year and he would be first Michelin. IF Michelin
eliminates the gap and IF the electronics hold over race distance he
should be on the box and maybe even challenging Rossi and Stoner, but
those are big ifs - could end up pretty much like last year as well.
Still, if Michelin closes significantly on Bridgestone I'd flip him with
Chris V.
5th: Spies. Another trip out on the limb, but things have lined up
pretty much perfectly for a big result - he's already done a round, it's
assumedly a Bridgestone track, it's where the Suzuki has had their best
dry results, it's one of his best tracks, there are guys struggling and
hurting. And it could be even better...
6th: Edwards. He should be celebrating a new contract with a podium at
home, but this track has rarely played out for him, really the
highlights not going much farther than the win in his last WSB race here
and his 2nd in the first MotoGP race. So I'll say he doesn't quite have
it, nor do the tires. Although that's not quite the popular opinion - he
has a 10-point lead over Nicky in the Soup pole on first American home...
7th: ****ano. A bit better than a typical finish for him (8 times 9th or
10th this year) and would be his best of the year, but he's on the
Bridgestones and he has experience here, worth something in this middle
group, so with the thinned field I'll move him up a few spots.
8th: De Angelis. Given his form last weekend on a somewhat similar track
and his Bridgestone tires, I'll call it a good weekend, the top rookie
on the day. A longshot even in 8th, though.
9th: Toseland. A moderately decent result on a track he knows (but
hasn't been to in four years). Could do a bit better, though.
10th: Capirossi. Although I think his arm will slow him a bit still and
make him 3rd among the Suzukis, enough for a top ten. Barely....
11th: Hacking. Just misses his top ten, but a solid, competitive result
anyway, running with the other rookies. And is it enough to get him
another crack at it at Indy? Probably not quite, but 2 or 3 spots higher
might just do it. His reaction to the bike and breaking the lap record
at Autopolis (Jacque's, by 4/10ths, and bested West's best time on the
first day) are very encouraging.
12th: Dovizioso. A coin flip over a now-healthier Lorenzo, who at least
has seen the track. But Dovi's form has been excellent while Lorenzo has
struggled lately. A guy who I think could do much better than this,
though, especially if the tires are okay. Like Lorenzo, but my bet is
the rookies typically struggle, and at least one of them won't make it
to the finish.
Pedrosa, guessing he'll ride, but not terribly well in his condition,
and will manage a few points for it. Really, though, he could be almost
anywhere, don't know until he hits the track - if he can manage it,
he's been very good here the last two years. But a thin field comes in
thinner, and it's ironic that part of the reason is that two guys,
Hopkins and Pedrosa, are hurt because they had single-rider crashes and
not in unexpected places, slid through whatever gravel was present and
hit walls a high speed. You know, on those wonderfully safe GP tracks in
Europe. The wall at Assen got Hopper because it was unprotected, nothing
but a sign and some tires, but apparently the one at the Sachsenring
didn't get Dani, because it at least had air fence and the gravel had
already done its job on him. So when was the last time we saw anyone hit
a wall at oh-so-dangerous Laguna at those kinds of speeds?
Anyway, beyond the top two it could go in any direction, and there
should be some good downfield action - veterans who are hurting in body
or in spirit, some who need a good result in familiar territory, rookies
taking their first crack at a tough, different track, and a couple
interesting wildcards who look ready. If Rossi can hang with Stoner it
could turn out to be an exciting weekend yet.
In the AMA, I'll take Mladin over the distracted Spies in SB, and Laguna
Man Bostrom over Zemke in the battle of the Californians in SS****t.
I'm outta here...
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